It sounds odd to say a team is quietly off to a 50-29 start, but that’s how it feels for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Perhaps the lack of buzz is partly to do with what the Yankees are doing and partly to do with the fact that the Dodgers were the preseason World Series favorite, but it’s not like Los Angeles has done anything that would make you skeptical of its status as a World Series favorite.
The betting market has not changed its belief that the Dodgers have the best team in baseball. Los Angeles is a favorite to win the World Series along with the Bronx Bombers at certain sportsbooks. However, no Majors team has been the betting favorite this season as often as the Dodgers. According to Action Labs, the Dodgers have closed as the underdog just twice this season and one of those games was essentially a pick’em where they went off at -105 against the Phillies.
Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB odds
BetMGM offers odds
Spread: COL +1.5 (+100) vs. LAD -1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: COL (+195) vs. LAD (-250)
Total: 8.5 (-115) / 8.5 (-105)| Under 8.5 (-105)
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Prediction Rockies vs. Dodgers
The Dodgers are currently -250 favorites to beat the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday, according to the current writing. Should the game close at the current number, it will be the 29th time this season the Dodgers will close above -200, and the 13th time they close above -250.
Despite this, the Dodgers have had a difficult season in these areas. Action Labs shows that Los Angeles is just 7-5 when closing at -250 or less and only 25-13 as favorites at least –200. Those numbers may seem fine, but when you’re closing that high you need to win at a really high clip to pay off. If you blindly bet $100 on the Dodgers every time they closed at -200 or higher, you’d be down $241 (-6.5% ROI), despite the fact that you’d have won 65.8% of your bets.
With this in mind, Tuesday night’s tilt with the Rockies seems like a good spot to fade the Dodgers as heavy favorites, even if it means backing the struggling German Marquez.
Marquez owns some of the ugliest numbers in baseball this season, but he’s performed much better away from Coors Field this season with a 4.21 ERA, .307 wOBA, and .358 slugging percentage allowed on the road, compared to 7.17 ERA, .407 wOBA and .591 SLG% at home.
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Mitch White will get the call opposite Marquez and while he’s been reliable this season with a 3.93 ERA and 3.93 xFIP, he’s still a beatable opponent for the Rockies. StatCast ranks White in the 44th percentile for average exit velocity, 41st percentile for barrel rate, and 51st percentile for xwOBA. White’s season was solid but not extraordinary.
Marquez will face a tough pitcher in the Dodgers’ batting match.
Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model projects the Rockies as a +170 underdog on Tuesday night, so there’s enough value on Colorado +200 to warrant a wager.
MLB pick Rockies vs. Dodgers
Colorado Rockies +200 (BetMGM)
Source: NY Post
