The New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals and MLB Deadline Day traded surprise deals have just days to go before opening a three-game series in Missouri. Nestor Cortes is a -155 favorite for the Yanks. The Cardinals will be battling with Dakota Hudson. They currently stand at +135. The current Over/Under is 8.5 runs.
Cortes had a great start to the season, and was even mentioned in the Cy Young conversation. However, he suffered a slow stretch in June and July. Cortes had a 5.34 ERA (and 1.36 WHIP) through six starts and 28.2 inning of work from June 8 to July 8. It was a come-back-down-to-earth moment for Cortes, who posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through his first 10 outings of the season.
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Yankees vs. Cardinals odds, pick
However, it appears that Cortes has regained his early-season form. The southpaw’s three previous starts have seen him allow just three runs on 15 hits, and he has a 1.50 ERA as well as a 1.00 WHIP. Cortes’ performance against the Orioles, Reds, and Royals is necessary to understand. However, even with such a simple schedule, it looks like Cortes is on the rise.
It’s a different story for Hudson.
Hudson has fallen apart over the summer after posting a 2.76 ERA in his first 11 appearances and 1.21 WHIP during those 11 games. Hudson has a 5.95 ERA in his eight last outings and walks (4.04 BB/9) nearly as often as he strikes out (4.25 K/9). The 27-year-old right-hander has never been known as a strikeout pitcher — Hudson is a ground ball artist that boasts a 56% ground ball rate over his career — but those are alarming numbers, especially against a deep Yankees lineup that can wait out a pitcher with control issues.
Similarly alarming is Hudson’s batted ball profile. Hudson is currently in the 13th%ile in hard hit rates, 14th%ile in average exit velocity, 4th%ile in expected batting average, and 19th%ile in expected Slugging percentage. Hudson has plenty of blow-up potential if he isn’t getting groundballs and lately he hasn’t been doing that.
It is better to lay the -155 than buy high on Cortes’ strong starts against small offenses. Instead, it seems that Hudson makes sense for this game’s bettors. Take the Yankees high-powered offense to score at least five runs Friday night, with the Cardinals’ hurler in question.
Yankees vs. Cardinals Pick
Yankees Team Total More Than 4.5
Source: NY Post