The New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals and MLB Deadline Day traded surprise deals have just days to go before opening a three-game series in Missouri. Nestor Cortes is a -155 favorite for the Yanks. The Cardinals will be battling with Dakota Hudson. They currently stand at +135. The current Over/Under is 8.5 runs.
Cortes had a great start to the season, and was even mentioned in the Cy Young conversation. However, he suffered a slow stretch in June and July. Cortes had a 5.34 ERA (and 1.36 WHIP) through six starts and 28.2 inning of work from June 8 to July 8. It was a come-back-down-to-earth moment for Cortes, who posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through his first 10 outings of the season.
Get a risk-free first bet up to $1,000
Only new customers accepted Only 21 years or older. Only in AZ. CO. IA. IL. IN. LA. MI. NY. PA. TN. VA. WV. WY. (Welcome Offer not available in NY & PA) Full T&C apply.
Get up to $1500 risk free on your first wager
Only for 21-year-olds. NY, CO. DC, IA. IN, IL. MI., NV. NJ. PA. TN. VA. WV. Full T&Cs apply.
$1,000 No Sweat Your First Bet
21+. New customers only. Only for AZ, CT. IA. IL. LA. MI. NJ. NY. PA. TN. WV. WY. T&C apply
Yankees vs. Cardinals odds, pick
However, it appears that Cortes has regained his early-season form. The southpaw’s three previous starts have seen him allow just three runs on 15 hits, and he has a 1.50 ERA as well as a 1.00 WHIP. Cortes’ performance against the Orioles, Reds, and Royals is necessary to understand. However, even with such a simple schedule, it looks like Cortes is on the rise.
It’s a different story for Hudson.
Hudson has fallen apart over the summer after posting a 2.76 ERA in his first 11 appearances and 1.21 WHIP during those 11 games. Hudson has a 5.95 ERA in his eight last outings and walks (4.04 BB/9) nearly as often as he strikes out (4.25 K/9). The 27-year-old right-hander has never been known as a strikeout pitcher — Hudson is a ground ball artist that boasts a 56% ground ball rate over his career — but those are alarming numbers, especially against a deep Yankees lineup that can wait out a pitcher with control issues.
Sports betting
Similarly alarming is Hudson’s batted ball profile. Hudson is currently in the 13th%ile in hard hit rates, 14th%ile in average exit velocity, 4th%ile in expected batting average, and 19th%ile in expected Slugging percentage. Hudson has plenty of blow-up potential if he isn’t getting groundballs and lately he hasn’t been doing that.
It is better to lay the -155 than buy high on Cortes’ strong starts against small offenses. Instead, it seems that Hudson makes sense for this game’s bettors. Take the Yankees high-powered offense to score at least five runs Friday night, with the Cardinals’ hurler in question.
Yankees vs. Cardinals Pick
Yankees Team Total More Than 4.5
Source: NY Post
